When Insurance Pulls Out: Wildfire Risk, Homeowner Impact, and the Urgent Need for a New Defense Model

“The fire’s not at the treeline — it’s at the door.”

Wildfire insurance is vanishing — not just in California, but across the country.

Major insurers have already stopped writing or renewing policies in states like Colorado, Texas, and Florida. And the American Property Casualty Insurance Association now reports that more than a dozen states are experiencing wildfire-related coverage losses, with over 212,000 homeowner policies dropped in California alone.

What started as a regional issue is now exposing a deeper vulnerability in how we manage — and misunderstand — risk.

A Market Signal or a System Failure?

Insurers aren’t being unreasonable. They’re reacting to losses that outstrip historical models. Wildfires today move faster, burn hotter, and generate higher structural loss than our financial systems were designed to absorb. What used to be low-frequency catastrophic events have become annual inevitabilities.

But as the private sector exits, homeowners are left with little protection. Public fire agencies are politically exposed and operationally stretched. And community leadership, in many cases, is defaulting to avoidance: delaying development, evacuating sooner, or restricting expansion in high-risk zones.

These are rational responses. But they leave a growing number of homeowners standing alone — uninsurable and increasingly undefended.

The Ignition Point No One’s Guarding

Here’s what we don’t talk about enough: homes rarely ignite from direct flame contact. Research shows that up to 90% of wildfire-related structure losses start with windborne embers, prolonged radiant heat, or falling debris — all targeting a home’s most vulnerable edges.

This is what some now call “Zone Zero” — the immediate perimeter and exterior surfaces of a structure. The roof, the vents, the eaves. The places where small exposures turn into total losses.

Right now, this zone is almost entirely unprotected. And it’s where a new generation of fire defense needs to be focused.

Other Industries Have Solved This

We’ve seen this shift before:

• Auto insurers sponsor telematics to improve driving behavior.

• Health insurers pay for flu shots and screenings.

• Property insurers deploy waterflow monitors to detect sprinkler failures.

Each of these strategies prevents loss at the source, while offering better data and smarter pricing. So why isn’t wildfire defense evolving the same way?

Because the solutions haven’t yet reached the home itself — and because no one has taken the lead in distributing the cost of prevention.

We Need a New Contract

Instead of relying on last-minute suppression and hoping for the best, we need a different model:

• Homeowners invest in ignition-resistant upgrades or structure-level defense.

• Insurers explore hybrid policies that reduce liability in exchange for pre-deployment.

• Local governments coordinate zones of protection and support public-private funding pathways.

This is about resilience — not just for individual homes, but for entire communities. Because a defended structure doesn’t just survive. It slows the fire. It reduces ember generation. It gives fire crews a chance to win.

Let’s Move This Forward

I’ve spent the past five years working with DHS S&T on field deployment of new technologies for emergency response and structural fire defense. My background is in aerospace and mechanical engineering, but the throughline is simple:

“This isn’t just a fire problem — it’s an insurance problem, a planning problem, and a scale problem.”

I’m especially interested in hearing from those working at the intersection of wildfire, insurance, and resilience — from underwriters and risk modelers to community leaders and public safety innovators. If this resonates with your work or your world, let’s start a conversation.

About the Author Mike Ralston is a fire technology strategist and former firefighter, with a background in disaster response (FEMA), UAS wildfire support, and aerospace and mechanical engineering. He has spent over five years collaborating with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security Science & Technology Directorate, helping guide emerging technologies from concept to real-world deployment. His work bridges product development, operational insight, and market strategy to deliver scalable solutions at the intersection of crisis response and innovation.